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Please note that any information presented here is point-in-time so please turn to other sources for up-to-date information.  

  • Writer's picturenschwalbe

Emerging Evidence from the Lancet

Updated: Apr 17, 2020

Please see the articles attached below.

The Wuhan article is the first peer-reviewed retrospective cohort study on underlying risk factors that I have seen. It clearly evidences of mortality linked to underlying conditions and age.  Italy data showing the same but not yet published in this way.

The second and third are on control strategies. Seems like containment (or mitigation) is more about flattening the curve over time rather than about decreasing overall incidence.

Becoming clearer that viral shedding happens early and before most people are symptomatic.   And that we really still need more data on population prevalence and age (and other factor adjusted) mortality as the CFR really depends on those factors.  Still many unknowns about community immunity, saturation, etc.  But my read is this is going to last a while.

Interesting also that dominator even with mass testing will likely be underestimated as the (most of) the current tests do not show if one has had the virus – only if one has the virus.

Raises lots of questions about the strategy being taken by NYC, private schools, etc  and the related public health objectives. Right now seems ad hoc – and uncoordinated (e.g. if objective not clearly articulated then strategy choice unclear).

Recognize this is a fast-moving topic and am following intermittently so don’t use me as your complete source!  WHO, Lancet – all have real-time information.   This is all “point in time.”  And two of the 3 Lancet pieces are opinion – which is a different category of analysis (and robustness) than the Wuhan piece. 


More on “flattening the curve”- this time in plainer English with a simple moving info-graphic.

Helen Branswell and Stat are a good source to follow.



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